\u00a0 \u00a0 TCMB 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 enflasyon beklentisinde ge\u00e7en s\u00fcre\u00e7te dikkat \u00e7ekici bir de\u011fi\u015fim ya\u015fand\u0131. Y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda y\u00fczde 12 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen 2026 y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahmini, yap\u0131lan g\u00fcncellemelerin ard\u0131ndan y\u00fczde 28\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Son revizyonla birlikte Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ilk tahmini ile mevcut beklenti aras\u0131ndaki fark 16 puana<\/strong> ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n TCMB, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk Enflasyon Raporlar\u0131nda 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda enflasyonun y\u00fczde 12 seviyesine gerileyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcnde bulunmu\u015ftu. Ancak sonraki d\u00f6nemlerde ekonomik geli\u015fmeler ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen enflasyon verileri do\u011frultusunda tahminlerde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc de\u011fi\u015fikliklere gidildi.<\/p>\n A\u011fustos 2025\u2019te 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 13-19 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tahmin a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131rken, para politikas\u0131nda referans al\u0131nacak ara hedef y\u00fczde 16 olarak belirlendi. \u015eubat 2026\u2019da tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fczde 21\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n May\u0131s 2026\u2019da ise enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde daha belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik ya\u015fand\u0131. TCMB, 2026 y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahminini y\u00fczde 26\u2019ya y\u00fckseltirken ara hedefi de y\u00fczde 24\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131.<\/p>\n TCMB\u2019nin y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc Enflasyon Raporu kapsam\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 son de\u011ferlendirmede 2026 y\u0131l sonu enflasyon beklentisi y\u00fczde 28 olarak g\u00fcncellendi.<\/p>\n TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Karahan, enflasyonun 2027 sonunda y\u00fczde 15\u2019e, 2028 sonunda ise y\u00fczde 9\u2019a gerilemesinin beklendi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Orta vadede ise enflasyonun y\u00fczde 5 hedefi \u00e7evresinde istikrar kazanmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtti.<\/p>\n Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tahminlerindeki de\u011fi\u015fim yaln\u0131zca 2026 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmad\u0131. 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda 2025 sonu i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 14 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan tahmin, sonraki raporlarda \u00f6nce y\u00fczde 21\u2019e, ard\u0131ndan y\u00fczde 24\u2019e y\u00fckseltildi.<\/p>\n A\u011fustos 2025\u2019te y\u00fczde 25-29 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tahmin a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131rken, kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda bu aral\u0131k y\u00fczde 31-33\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131. T\u00dc\u0130K verilerine g\u00f6re 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda y\u0131ll\u0131k t\u00fcketici enflasyonu y\u00fczde 30,89 oldu.<\/p>\n Bu geli\u015fme, y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde yap\u0131lan tahmin revizyonlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonun seyri \u00fczerindeki beklentilerle birlikte de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in son verilerine g\u00f6re t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 Temmuz 2026\u2019da ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 1,78 artt\u0131. Y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon ise y\u00fczde 31,75 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n Mevcut y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon oran\u0131 ile TCMB\u2019nin y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 28\u2019lik tahmin aras\u0131ndaki fark ise para politikas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde izleyece\u011fi seyir a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n TCMB\u2019nin 2026 i\u00e7in ilk olarak y\u00fczde 12 d\u00fczeyinde \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc y\u0131l sonu enflasyonunun y\u00fczde 28\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi, yakla\u015f\u0131k bir bu\u00e7uk y\u0131ll\u0131k s\u00fcre\u00e7te beklentilerin ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n 14.08.2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u00a0 \u00a0 TCMB 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 enflasyon beklentisinde ge\u00e7en s\u00fcre\u00e7te dikkat \u00e7ekici bir de\u011fi\u015fim ya\u015fand\u0131. Y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda y\u00fczde 12 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen 2026 y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahmini, yap\u0131lan g\u00fcncellemelerin ard\u0131ndan y\u00fczde 28\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Son revizyonla birlikte Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ilk tahmini ile mevcut beklenti aras\u0131ndaki fark 16 puana ula\u015ft\u0131. Tahminler y\u0131l i\u00e7inde s\u00fcrekli g\u00fcncellendi TCMB, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":17435,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1659,1610,1750,257,1747,1648,691,1327,1657,4041],"class_list":["post-22480","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-genel","tag-2026-enflasyon","tag-ekonomi-haberleri","tag-emekli-maasi","tag-enflasyon","tag-enflasyon-farki","tag-enflasyon-tahmini","tag-maas-zammi","tag-memur-zammi","tag-merkez-bankasi","tag-tcmb"],"yoast_head":"\nTahminler y\u0131l i\u00e7inde s\u00fcrekli g\u00fcncellendi<\/h3>\n
Son tahmin y\u00fczde 28 oldu<\/h3>\n
2025 tahmininde de \u00f6nemli sapma ya\u015fand\u0131<\/h3>\n
Temmuz enflasyonu y\u00fczde 31,75<\/h3>\n